Friday, March 27, 2009
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Friday, March 20, 2009
Housing prices in SLC
This is mostly an email in disguise to my dear wife, but I thought these stats were interesting enough to publish them for broader (i.e., three people instead of one) consumption.
In the last three years, the median home in SLC has fallen from a peak of $400K to $292K, a 27% decline. The 25th percentile home has fallen from a peak of $270K to $199K, a 26% decline. The 75th percentile home has fallen from a peak of $$697K to $491K. While this is a similar decline (30%), over $200K of lost equity is a pretty staggering number.
One notable difference is that the median and below homes had a real run-up during those three years. The 25th percentile home price three years ago was almost exactly the same as it is now, it just ran up and fell back down in the meantime. The median home has lost 20% of its value from three years ago, so the fall is not just from short-term hysteria. In the case of the 75th percentile, prices only ran up 6% and then fell down 30%, so it's long term value that was lost.
Here's what that looks like graphically. Notice that the most expensive houses peaked a long time ago and just continue to tumble.
Here's what the inventory has done in the meantime (a 3x increase).
I'm no fundamentalist (speaking financially, though also religiously for that matter), but the inventory chart looks like a shoulder to me. Inventory looks like it has hopefully topped out and will start falling. I'm sure that's a leading indicator and will not stem price declines until much of the inventory is absorbed. Nevertheless, it is a good sign that things are hopefully turning positive.
The good news for those out there looking for houses these days, or more specifically, today, is that there's a record inventory of houses to look at, houses in the $500K price range used to be in the $700K price range, those prices may fall a bit more, but should not continue to fall for overly long.
Have a nice day househunting.
Note: Prices are list, not sold.
In the last three years, the median home in SLC has fallen from a peak of $400K to $292K, a 27% decline. The 25th percentile home has fallen from a peak of $270K to $199K, a 26% decline. The 75th percentile home has fallen from a peak of $$697K to $491K. While this is a similar decline (30%), over $200K of lost equity is a pretty staggering number.
One notable difference is that the median and below homes had a real run-up during those three years. The 25th percentile home price three years ago was almost exactly the same as it is now, it just ran up and fell back down in the meantime. The median home has lost 20% of its value from three years ago, so the fall is not just from short-term hysteria. In the case of the 75th percentile, prices only ran up 6% and then fell down 30%, so it's long term value that was lost.
Here's what that looks like graphically. Notice that the most expensive houses peaked a long time ago and just continue to tumble.
Here's what the inventory has done in the meantime (a 3x increase).
I'm no fundamentalist (speaking financially, though also religiously for that matter), but the inventory chart looks like a shoulder to me. Inventory looks like it has hopefully topped out and will start falling. I'm sure that's a leading indicator and will not stem price declines until much of the inventory is absorbed. Nevertheless, it is a good sign that things are hopefully turning positive.
The good news for those out there looking for houses these days, or more specifically, today, is that there's a record inventory of houses to look at, houses in the $500K price range used to be in the $700K price range, those prices may fall a bit more, but should not continue to fall for overly long.
Have a nice day househunting.
Note: Prices are list, not sold.
Michigan kills a dream
Every March I look forward to another dismal Big Ten performance. With seven of their ten teams making this year's tourney I had hoped this could be a great year for them to highlight what a joke of a conference it is by going 0-7. They're 1-2 so far and the only solace I can take is that Illinois already fell as a 5 seed, so if Utah can't keep Luke out of foul trouble they won't be the first.
The MWC is hard to defend as long as BYU continues to go 0-fer-ever, but every conference has their weak link, I suppose.
The MWC is hard to defend as long as BYU continues to go 0-fer-ever, but every conference has their weak link, I suppose.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Eat chicken, stop global warning
Proposals to tax the flatulence of cows and other livestock have been denounced by farming groups in the Irish Republic and Denmark.
A cow tax of €13 per animal has been mooted in Ireland, while Denmark is discussing a levy as high as €80 per cow to offset the potential penalties each country faces from European Union legislation aimed at combating global warming.
The proposed levies are opposed vigorously by farming groups. The Irish Farmers' Association said that the cattle industry would move to South America to avoid EU taxes.
Livestock contribute 18 per cent of the greenhouse gases believed to cause global warming, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation. The Danish Tax Commission estimates that a cow will emit four tonnes of methane a year in burps and flatulence, compared with 2.7 tonnes of carbon dioxide for an average car.
HT: Mankiw
A cow tax of €13 per animal has been mooted in Ireland, while Denmark is discussing a levy as high as €80 per cow to offset the potential penalties each country faces from European Union legislation aimed at combating global warming.
The proposed levies are opposed vigorously by farming groups. The Irish Farmers' Association said that the cattle industry would move to South America to avoid EU taxes.
Livestock contribute 18 per cent of the greenhouse gases believed to cause global warming, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation. The Danish Tax Commission estimates that a cow will emit four tonnes of methane a year in burps and flatulence, compared with 2.7 tonnes of carbon dioxide for an average car.
HT: Mankiw
Thursday, March 05, 2009
TARP, cont.
As a follow up to my post about TARP-accepting companies being unable to hire high-paid execs, it appears there's now an Act II - they can't hire young guns either. An amendment to the stimulus limits H1-B visas to those accepting TARP. The notion of a limit on H1-B visas is a bit asinine to begin with, but to limit these folks from working in our most distressed companies is bizarre reverse logic.
(Note: H1-B visas are those given to foreign nationals with higher education and specialized training)
(Note: H1-B visas are those given to foreign nationals with higher education and specialized training)
Monday, March 02, 2009
Life Hain't Fair
Katie:
Six kids
One dog
House up for sale
Sickness galore
Attendant laundry nightmare
No end it sight
John:
Five co-workers
Disney World
VIP passes
No lines in sight
Who feels more horrible tonight?
Six kids
One dog
House up for sale
Sickness galore
Attendant laundry nightmare
No end it sight
John:
Five co-workers
Disney World
VIP passes
No lines in sight
Who feels more horrible tonight?
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